[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On August 4, the spot price of nickel rose as the US's July non-farm payrolls data was weak, strengthening expectations for a rate hike

SMM Nickel News on August 4:

Macro News:

(1) Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, the lowest in nine months and significantly below the expected 104,000. The non-farm payrolls added in May were revised down by 125,000, from the original 144,000 to 19,000; in June, they were revised down by 133,000, from 147,000 to 14,000. Traders fully priced in two interest rate cuts by the US Fed before the end of the year.

(2) US Trade Representative Greer stated that the new round of tariffs imposed by US President Trump on multiple countries last week was "basically set" and would not be adjusted in the current negotiations, including a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, a 50% tariff on Brazil, a 25% tariff on India, and a 39% tariff on Switzerland. Greer said that some tariffs were set based on bilateral trade surpluses and deficits, and "these tariff rates are basically fixed."

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged from 119,900 to 122,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,250 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands was -200 to 300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract fluctuated upward after a low opening in the night session on Friday and continued to fluctuate rangebound around the 120,000 yuan/mt level in today's trading session. As of the midday break, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,070 yuan/mt, up 0.08%.

The US non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July (expected 104,000), and the data for May-June were revised down significantly by a total of 258,000, with the unemployment rate rising. The data sparked market concerns about an economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index to fall and nickel prices to rebound slightly. Despite the weak non-farm payrolls data, the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler triggered personnel turmoil, and Trump's pressure on Powell to resign exacerbated policy uncertainty. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly around the key level of 120,000 yuan/mt.